Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 0.103561 0.120823 0.140705 0.165446 0.195608 0.231438 0.277606
2025-10-12 0.083289 0.105173 0.132943 0.171309 0.223792 0.294355 0.398631
2025-10-19 0.067891 0.091652 0.124420 0.174093 0.249637 0.363949 0.557695
2025-10-26 0.056374 0.080765 0.117025 0.176949 0.277851 0.449651 0.785669
2025-11-02 0.046031 0.069389 0.106455 0.172613 0.294946 0.528022 1.054001
2025-11-09 0.037269 0.058667 0.094581 0.163188 0.301284 0.593649 1.352906
2025-11-16 0.032036 0.052654 0.089276 0.164313 0.329575 0.722371 1.921573
2025-11-23 0.027740 0.047410 0.084208 0.164719 0.358071 0.873819 2.740311
2025-11-30 0.024607 0.043665 0.081162 0.168718 0.398393 1.090499 4.120720
2025-12-07 0.021889 0.040188 0.077893 0.171468 0.438654 1.347977 6.221200
2025-12-14 0.019035 0.035921 0.072045 0.166330 0.455608 1.551101 8.641409
2025-12-21 0.015853 0.030452 0.062456 0.148813 0.426890 1.560660 9.978497
2025-12-28 0.014338 0.028345 0.060299 0.151399 0.469667 1.945212 16.065125
2026-01-04 0.013246 0.026972 0.059610 0.158236 0.534708 2.553496 28.985306
2026-01-11 0.012140 0.025376 0.058035 0.162091 0.593529 3.259951 52.182830
2026-01-18 0.011166 0.023922 0.056521 0.165827 0.657650 4.177544 99.395284
2026-01-25 0.010070 0.021992 0.053315 0.162709 0.688913 4.955513 171.816631
2026-02-01 0.008961 0.019863 0.049120 0.154615 0.689793 5.499795 268.727305
2026-02-08 0.008290 0.018741 0.047599 0.156240 0.749339 6.926698 588.541881
2026-02-15 0.007676 0.017668 0.046004 0.157093 0.807885 8.668794 1409.717784
2026-02-22 0.007210 0.016919 0.045241 0.161267 0.896300 11.444938 4651.428663
2026-03-01 0.006762 0.016149 0.044255 0.164204 0.982885 14.948336 19717.849216
2026-03-08 0.006208 0.015005 0.041822 0.159589 1.007165 17.449200 72282.418756